World
War I was hailed by the "Allies" England, France and later USA,
as a "war to end all wars". Alas, that was too optimistic
and the League of Nations that was founded at the peace treaty
collapsed in the 1930s
because of a failure of the leading countries to follow through.
In May 1945 there was a new start in the "United Nations."
The UN deliberately set itself restrictions to avoid being
swamped. The UN
countries would try to prevent
attacks by one country on another, but not intervene in local
squables. But in the 1980s the USA and other countries
encouraged the break up of a UN country Yugoslavia. In 2003
the USA intervened a founding member of the UN, Iraq, contrary
to the desires of the UN and without (overt) support of any neighboring
country. Having dismembered Yugoslavia NATO helped Kosovo
to break away from Serbia. lThe effects of this are
profound, both on the US
economy, and perhaps most important on the view of the world's
population about the policies of the United States. It
gave a precedent and encouraged Russia to recognize brakaway regions of
Georgia. Just as USA has had the Monroe doctrine for over 150
years and likes to control its neighbors, so Russia wants to control
its neigbors and resents the influence of countries in a distant
continent. The desire to control OIL supplies is an
unspoken but very much on the surface. It has been so
since Winston Churchill, as first Lord of the (UK) admiralty bought a
controlling interest in the Anglo-Iranian oil company in 1912.
Yugoslavia was created by the Treaty of
Versailles originally as the Kingdom of Serbs,
Croats and Slovenes, and by 1945 as a Federation. It
must not be forgotten that Russia supported the Serbs in July 1914
when Austria (including Croatia and Slovenia at the time) attacked
bringing on WWI. In WWII the refusal of the young King Peter to
allow
Hitler
free passage of troops through Yugoslavia led to occupation and a
valiant resistance. This delayed the Nazi attack on USSR by
6 weeks, which was, perhaps crucial in allowing the USSR to
survive that terrible summer. A segment of Croations formed
the Ustashe which allied itself with Hitler and slaghtered between
200,000 and 500,000 Serbs. After the death of President
Tito, who had kept the Federation together for nearly 40 years,
Serbs were trying to
assert themselves after many years of what many of them
considered to be Croatian
(Tito) rule. Some countries, members of the UN, started to
be active in what has been construed by others as an encouragement for
the federation to break apart. Of
course the atrocities committed by ethnic Serbs, in Bosnia in
particular, set much of the developed world against Serbia and the
federation did break apart
completely. But starting in the
1990s, a more serious trend began. Much of the world turned
against Serbia itself as the Serbs struggled with dissension in a part
of Serbia proper - Kosovo. This resulted in a bombing of
Belgrade - the 3rd time Belgrade was bombed in half a century.
(1941
by the Nazis, 1944 by the Americans and again in 1990s by NATO).
Now in February 2008, a unilateral Declaration of Independence has
been declared in Kosovo, without support of the UN
security council. Worse still it was immediately
recognized by many European countries and the USA who are, at least
technically, flouting the UN. This has set back the idea of
peaceful world approach to disagreements. It is instructive
to list the nations which have not recognized Kosovo. They
include Russia, Spain, India which have seccesionist movements of their
own. It is too early
to see how this will play out. The opinion of one
Harvard physics department staff member is eloquently expressed on his website.
The Balkans, in the turmoil as the Ottoman empire disintegrated,
have been the site of far too many excellent novels and
plays - such as Bernard Shaw's "Arms and the Man" (about the 1885 war)
for anyone to feel
comfortable about the future. King Alexander, in
spite
of intensive struggle in the 1920s, was unable to get the people in his
expanded country to agree and he was assasinated in
1934 by a Macedonian activist, allegedly acting with Croat
separatists. The Serbs in 1941+ and more recently after 1985 have
paid very heavily
for
King Alexander's failure.
You may download a number
of
letters, mostly about human riaghts, by Andree and/or Richard
Wilson to politicians,
including President Bush and newspapers
Missiles
No Defense
In
mid-September 2009 President Obama propoed a change in the US
posture in Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems. Very few, if
any, news
commentators or news media have discussed the technical
issues. This by itself, is one more example of
an appalling failure to understand and use technical considerations in
public policy.
"Scientific-technical
realities cannot be overruled by political decisions without
resulting in grave risks to the nation." WKH Panofsky, 2007
Arguments about missile defense
have been going on for 40 years. On the American side,
Professor WKH (Pief) Panofsky, who was married to my wife's sister,
testified in the US Senate about this in 1969. On the
Russian side, Andrei Sakharov wrote aginst it first in
1967 and again in 1987. Pief Panofsky in his ongoing
advice to the US
government continued to argue against ABMs. Indeed his last
words, entitkled "Missiles
no Defense" were published in the
San Francisco Chronicle 2 days after his death from a heart attack in
2007. Two study groups have been organized by the American
Physical Society to report on the issues. The first was chaired
by Nobel Laureate Professor Bloembergen and the second by MIT Professor
Daniel Kleppner. (N. Bloembergen and C. K. N.
Patel, et al. Science and Technology of Directed Energy
Weapons, Reviews of Modern Physics, Vol. 59, No. 3, Part II, pp.
S1-S202 (1987), D. K. Barton et
al,
The APS study on Boost-Phase Intercept Systems for National Missile
Defense Reviews of Modern Physics. Rev. Mod. Phys. 76.
S1 (2004)). Each group took pains to have wide
representation. Apart from the problem, never yet
completely solved, of identifying and shooting down a missile, it is
cheap and easy for a missile, once at altitude, to release decoys which
can further confuse identifying radar. No practical solution has
been proposed to avoid this stumbling block. The second APS
study explored the possibility of shooting down the missile in the
"Boost Phase" before it had released decoys. With
extraordinary fast and reliable computers this might be possible but
only if the radar and interceptors are close to the launch
site. Installation in Poland and the Czech republic
would not help against Iran. A system based in Azerbaijan, as
President Putin suggested, or on a ship in the Arabian/Persian
Gulf as President Obama is now proposing, has a small chance of
working. But to imply that any part of an ABM system has
been shown to work is absurd.
The US is prosperous
enough that
it can afford this waste of money. But the extraordinary
danger is misleading the American public into believing that a
technical solution is possible for a major world wide
problem which will last as long as human civilization..
That can only weaken the diplomatic efforts which
are essential for the future existence of mankind.
Fortunately the USA and
USSR created the Anti Ballistic Bissile treaty in 1972.
Alas, in a tragic example of leadership in folly the USA
withdrew in 2002. Although most scientsts would prefer a
complete abandonment of an ABM system and renewed adherence to the
treaty, President Obama's proposal in 2009 goes some way
toward undoing the damage caused by this abandonment by his predecessor
but pressure to
return to the treaty must be maintained, and pressure on media and
politicians to look at technical issues is even more
important. When matters such as the possibility of
nuclear war are concerned, no short term domestic political issue
should ever take precedence over the long term issue of survival of
mankind. A
longer
article was presented at the
Seminar on Planetary Emergencies in
Erice, Sicily in 2007 and updated for the web. My general opinion
of the issues of nuclear war can be found in an interview with a New York Times
reporter on YOU TUBE.