Report of the Chairman; ENERGY PMP of the World Federation of Sciences

Erice, Tuesday August 23rd 2005
Presented by the Chairman

Richard Wilson

Over the years, the Energy PMP has studied nuclear energy, both fission and fusion with varying degrees of frustration. In 2003 the PMP had a specific session in the general seminar, last year talks were only in the PMP itself, but this year the PMP again arranged a session on nuclear and renewable energy in the main seminar. There was a degree of optimism not seen for many years. Although the number of nuclear power plants under construction throughout the world is still woefully small, it seems that new power plants will soon be ordered in the USA - the first time for nearly 30 years. The site for ITER has been selected although a commercial fusion power plant is still a long way off. It seems that major public opposition will be muted. For example, Mr Patrick Moore, founder of Greenpeace testified in favor of nuclear power at a congressional hearing on April 28, 2005 with the title, "Nuclear Power Generation as an Approach to Meeting America's Energy Needs."

The Energy PMP decided to study carbon sequestration which may be necessary to make continued fossil fuel burning environmentally acceptable. This has therefore been a focus over the last year. At the same time one of our members, Dr Hisham Khatib who is Vice President of the World Energy Council pointed out that WEC is very interested in the subject and proposed a joint meeting. This will take place in Erice tomorrow, Wednesday August 24th 2005 in Erice. The advantages we see for WFS are that it will be one more way for WFS to help ensure that the best scientific data are brought to the attention of government and industry. We also see an advantage to WEC in that they will, at least in the discussions, be exposed to the more rigorous scientific analysis that WFS can provide. This joint meeting is therefore an experiment. I propose to report after this meeting on the experiment as our members see it. If it is successful, it might be repeated either by the Energy PMP or another PMP.

The Energy PMP has had a web page http://energypmp.org, for two years now upon which the Chairman posts comments by the members. We have found that a "living web page" of this nature to be useful. The Energy PMP proposes to assist the relevant international efforts, ESMAP, World Bank and UNDP, who have information about energy issues in the developing world on their web sites. This information, of varying quality and timeliness, is supposed to be on a country and regional basis. The purpose of the international efforts is to connect people with ideas to those seeking solutions and improvements. <>The proposed WFS role will be not only to help conceptualize and catalyze the network development, but to assist and encourage its operation on a continuing basis; also to make sure that the network is a living entity which has the latest and best scientific information. Proposed activities include, but will not be limited to, analyzing the energy plans and policies of specific countries or regions; finding common and unique problems and possible solutions; arranging for the exchange of people between developing countries and with the industrial world both public and private. In due course WFS might even conceptualize the initiation of an energy peace corps to validate network information on the ground and to contribute to solutions, experiments, and analyses.

This proposal is still embrionic. It depends, of course, on the existence of at least one individual who is interested in the detailed leg work to explore with the agencies their willingness to have WFS participation. This individual exists within the PMP and this other exploration will take place during the next six months and be presented to WFS in more detail at a later time..

International Energy Research and Development

At the PMP meeting on August 18th 2005, there was a long discussion, jointly with members of the Climate PMP on funding for energy research and development. It was pointed out that although the countries of the world are making more decisions about energy than ever before and the contribution of energy production and energy services alone to the economies of most developed countries approaches 10 percent, the expenditures on energy R and D has declined, worldwide, in real terms by a factor of 2. Risks to the economies of the developed world from the ineffective utilization of energy include, among others, potential climate change, oil supply disruptions, unstable reliability, and disease incidence costs of urban air pollution. At present the developed nations are under-investing in energy R&D relative to the economic benefits or to the value of insuring against a wide range of risks As a result of this discussion, the Energy PMP plans to make an analysis of the energy R and D a major focus for the coming year. This effort will include: understanding the total portfolios, exposing gaps, overlaps and the magnitude of the global effort, understanding trends in both the public and private sectors, and the magnitude of effort needed to meet the challenge of global energy system transitions.

RECOMMENDATIONS 1 and 2.

(1) The Energy PMP recommends that governments of all developed nations examine their R&D expenditures over a broad range of energy technologies and determine whether they are sufficient to cope with the dynamic changes taking place and the importance of energy to their economies in the long-term. They should also consider carefully what technologies they need to develop to deal with the risks related to the global utilization of energy, work closely with industry to plan to achieve this goal, and work with each other to eliminate gaps and optimize solutions.
(For Energy Ministers of all countries) (2) The Energy PMP calls upon the educational institutions of the world to recognize the crucial importance of simultaneous discussion of many aspects of an energy decision. These make the interdisciplinary study of all the aspects of energy production and use, including ecological, engineering and economic aspects, an important academic exercise. Students at all levels should be encouraged to engage in such studies. These are particularly appropriate at this time when governments are making important decisions about energy policy and need experts at all levels.
(For Education Ministers)

Developing Countries.

Last year the PMP was especially interested in developing countries. In the PMP itself we had talks from India and Bangladesh. Although we have had a somewhat different focus during the last year we are coming back to it. In particular this appears in the following recommendation:

PREAMBLE to Recommendation 3

Maintaining and understanding the flow of energy in the world is, more than ever before, crucial for mankind. It is central to many of man's activities. It makes an important connection with the "war on poverty" because for many centuries unavailability of fuel has been associated with poverty. Conversely making fuel available has been a part of many anti-poverty programs. The following remark on the subject is attributed to Benjamin Franklin (1786):

"In traveling, when men have neither coal nor wood nor turf, save at excessive prices, they live in miserable hovels, are ragged, and have nothing comfortable about them. But when fuel is cheap, and they have the wit to use it wisely, they are well supplied with necessaries and have decent habitations."

At the other end of the fuel chain, the use of energy often has severe environmental impacts and sustainability demands that the fuel sources not be too rapidly depleted. Any responsible energy policy must take account of all of these considerations.   The Energy PMP is concerned that some policies proposed by developed nations to cope with global warming, for example, would have an adverse impact upon global anti-poverty programs proposed by the same nations. It is crucial that the poorest of the poor have a minimum of energy supply. Any such adverse impact would deepen the distrust that such poor nations often feel towards the rich ones. Accordingly the energy PMP makes the following recommendations:
(3) The Energy PMP calls upon developed nations to help developing nations have the minimum of an energy supply and help them overcome the incidental adverse effects of any global environmental policy that they propose. This might include, but not be limited to:
(a) assist in paying any extra cost to make an electricity generating plant fuel more energy efficient or carbon dioxide free as a part of their assistance to developing nations
(b) aid in education and instruction of procedures and policies for efficient end use of energy.
(c) assistance in transfer of any requisite technology
(for EU environment program and Environment Ministers)

Next year

The present Chairman of the PMP is unable to commit himself to coming to Erice in August 2006. Accordingly Dr Klaus Lackner has agreed to be Chairman for the next year. His agreement to undertake this was met with approval and acclamation.   The present chairman hopes that Klaus will be able to persuade scientists from many other countries to join in the work of the PMP so that itis not so much dominated by the USA.

Thanks

The Chairman thanks :
each and every member of the Energy PMP
his old friend Professor "Nino" Zichichi
Each and every member of the very helpful WFS staff

Addendum  September 1st (not presented to the whole group)

    The joint worshop with the World Energy Council was a success.   Most members and guests of the PMP were able to attend and expressed their appreciation.  So did a few members of the main seminar who had stayed over.    For the WEC members it was their first visit to Erice and they expressed their delight at the town and the centre.     Although the talks were mostly by WEC members,   Dr Hisham Khatib and Dr  Klaus Lackner gave important presentations.   Dr Carmeb DeFiglio was prevented from doing so by medical problems.  However, the PMP members participated in lively questions and discussion.    The Energy PMP members tended to have a more fundamental focus that the WEC members, as might be expected.    This especially applies to discussion of the long term and large scale implementation of carbon sequestration.   If carbon sequestration remains limited to the "obvious" applications such as helping in secondary or tertiary recovery of oil, it will be a  sideshow in the world's energy policy.

    The "experiment" was a success and we recommend that it be repeated when occasion offers.   But on another occasion we hope that the physical logistics can be better arranged so that the participants from WEC (or other organization) can stay in, or nearer, Erice so that they may overlap morre with WFS members, and enjoy the delights of the town of Erice.  However the workshop came up with no other specific recommendation.